Once you hit rock bottom, there is only one place to go, but not until June. Nickel, Moly and Chrome averages all decreased in the month of March (second month running). March nickel averaged $4.40 per pound versus February $4.7213 per pound. The 304/304L surcharge for May will be $0.3377 per pound versus $0.3841 in April. March’s Moly averaged $8.419 down 40 cents off of February’s number. Thus the 316/316L surcharge for May will be $0.5152 per pound versus $0.5778 in April. Nickel is averaging $4.71 per pound this month, so June's surcharge numbers will be looking up.
Stainless mill lead times are 4 to 8 weeks. Rumors of a base price increase are out there.
Carbon prices continue to soften and Mill lead times are 5 to 6 weeks.
The world economic crisis and external raw materials price volatility drove stainless production down to 25.9 million metric tons last year, a 6.9% decline from 2007, according to the International Stainless Steel Foundation. In 2008, the United States accounted for only 7-9% of the world stainless steel production. On the cold rolled sheet side of things, February 2009 shipments declined about 70% from the same month last year. In 2009, after a very weak Q1, production is forecasted to improve each quarter so that by Q4 2009 there is positive year-on-year growth.
